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OCTOBER 18, 2004
Edited by Lee Walczak Why Bush Isn't Moving The Needle With Latinos President Bush has been treading a fine line on immigration, alternately sending a welcoming message while paying heed to the Right's concerns about America's porous borders. But on Oct. 1, Bush aides looked at House GOP-backed legislation that sought to tighten immigration controls while implementing the 9/11 Commission's security findings -- and said basta. The White House urged conservative lawmakers to strip out measures -- like federal standards for drivers' licenses -- that could antagonize Hispanic voters. House GOP leaders, pursuing their own election agenda, demurred -- but the White House is likely to win in the House-Senate conference. This is not the first time that the ostensibly pro-immigration President has butted heads with hard-liners. With Latinos a fast-growing part of the electorate, Bush needs those votes to prevail in toss-up states like Florida, New Mexico, and Nevada. Political guru Karl Rove wants to improve on the 35% of the Hispanic vote Bush won in 2000. Bush has wooed Hispanics with his call for a guest-worker program that offers immigrants a path -- albeit a vague one -- to citizenship. The Prez also helped beat back a drive to bar U.S. banks from accepting Latin American national ID cards to open an account. He made it easier for legal immigrants to get food stamps. And he continues to pitch strong appeals to religion and family values in Hispanic areas. But immigration is one issue where conservatives won't follow their leader. Many GOP traditionalists contend that granting illegals citizenship would reward "un-American" behavior. Opposition to the guest-worker idea was so heated that the White House never sent a plan to the Hill. "Within the party, and throughout the country, people don't want to grant amnesty to people who came here illegally," says Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.). The stillborn Bush reform has stirred animosity among Latino leaders -- and led liberal-leaning activists to insist that the President is all sombrero, no cattle. "The Administration has pretended to be Latinos' friend," says Michele Waslin, an analyst at the National Council of La Raza. "Their actions speak louder than words." A Dream on Hold Latino activists are frustrated that the White House hasn't backed the Dream Act, promoted by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-Utah). It would offer legal status to high school graduates who came to the U.S. as children. The Bushies also set off an uproar when they required border hospitals seeking federal aid to quiz patients about their immigration status. After Hispanic and hospital groups howled, the Administration said it would try to get the data without questioning patients. At Hispanic stops on the campaign trail, Bush still struts his Texas machismo and laces his appeals with a smattering of Spanish. But with mixed messages from GOP ranks, Rove's dream of boosting the Prez's share of the Hispanic vote may be dimming. A Sept. 27-29 poll by the nonpartisan William C. Velasquez Institute shows Bush with 36% of Latino support in four Southwestern states, a figure WCVI President Antonio Gonzalez predicts will shrink as Democrats spread the word about legislation that has foundered on Bush's watch. With a pro-Dem registration tide sweeping those Blue States, any erosion in Bush's standing with Latinos could prove costly. By Alexandra Starr CAPITAL WRAPUP The Growing Irrelevance Of Nader Even as he lands on more state ballots, Ralph Nader is watching his support collapse. Just 1% of Americans say they are certain to vote for Nader for President, according to an Oct. 1-3 Pew Research Center poll. Unlike 2000, he's not drawing liberal votes from the Democrats. His remaining supporters are independents, 2% of whom still like Ralph.   CAPITAL WRAPUP A Small Gift From The SEC Republicans who have bit their tongues through the Securities & Exchange Commission's rule-writing spree may finally have something to cheer. Chairman William H. Donaldson plans to loosen rules governing the "quiet period" that companies must maintain prior to an IPO. It's a rare case of deregulation from an agency that's been in overdrive for two years, with Donaldson's campaign to crack down on mutual funds and hedge funds coming right after the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act. CAPITAL WRAPUP Where Muslims And Jews Meet President Bush has managed to unite Jews and Muslims -- but not with a peace plan. Recent polls find that both groups strongly favor John Kerry for President. A Zogby International Poll reports that 68% of Muslims back Kerry, vs. 7% for President Bush and 11% for Lebanese-American Nader. That's a huge shift from four years ago, when Bush led Al Gore among Muslims by 11 percentage points. An American Jewish Committee Poll shows Bush trailing Kerry 69%-24% among Jewish voters, though that is still better than the 19% he got in 2000.
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